Israel: The Flotilla Crisis

AP:  Nine Israeli commandos stormed a Turkish aid flotilla bound for Gaza.  Bound sides are claiming the other started the violence.  A few quick thoughts:

• While I understand the Israeli logic that they couldn't allow the ships to reach Gaza because it would set a precedent for other runs and bolster Hamas, I can't help but think in the long run, they're going to lose the international PR battle on this. This can very well be a tipping point where international opinion, already against Israel, significantly hardens.  STRATFOR is pointing out this may cause a political crisis within the Israeli government, and will probably cause a break in Turkish-Israeli relations, which were already deteriorating for some time. Turkey is Israel's only ally in the region.
• This is a major assertion of a rising Turkish power in the region. They deliberately provoked Israel with the aid run. This also positions them as one of the leading voices for the Palestinians. Question: This aid flotilla was enroute to Israel since May 22nd. Were there any US concerns expressed to either Turkey or Israel on a potential confrontation? Or did the administration adopt a wait and see approach?
• The WH's initial response was designed to buy time to sort out the implications before committing themselves definitively. The WH and Israel have been quietly trying to mend relations after recent public spats over Israeli settlements in Jerusalem.  Netanyahu probably calculated this incident would not cause lasting damage to the US-Israeli relationship in the long run, although it may be rocky in the short term.  Once the WH national security staff sorts it out, the official response will be a pivotal on the direction of future US-Israeli relations under this administration, and potentially, on Israel's international standing.
• While this incident complicates the WH strategy for the region, I think this gives the administration some leverage over Netanyahu, and they may very well use it. Turkey is a major US ally in the region and NATO partner, and the administration will want Turkish cooperation on Iran. 
• Foreign Policy mag has a good round up on this:

It already has the makings of a huge international fracas that will make the Goldstone Report look like small potatoes by comparison. But to what end? Israelis on the right end of the political spectrum -- and that is most of them these days -- are convinced there is a "propaganda war" against their country, that most if not all of the criticism is unfair, and that the real issue is the radicalism of groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, which openly call for Israel's destruction. That's certainly the perspective of hard-line government officials like Deputy Foreign Minister Daniel Ayalon, who has already called the ships an "armada of hate and violence" and accused the activists of links to al Qaeda.

In other words, there's a huge unwillingness on the Israeli right to face reality -- that Israel is fast losing friends and allies in the world, and that this government in Jerusalem has only accelerated the shift. It's not hard to imagine boycott campaigns gaining momentum, damaging the Israeli economy and isolating the country diplomatically, especially in Europe.

The one thing that might extrictate Israel from this mess is a violent response from the Palestinian side -- which never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Stay tuned.