Iran: So Much for those "Crippling" Sanctions

The Washington Times is reporting that the White House is asking Congress to water down sanctions on foreign companies that invest in Iran's energy sector.  Specifically, it's asking to exclude "cooperating countries," namely Russia and China.  Which means essentially the sanctions will have no bite. Talk about an inversion of words--if Russia and China were cooperative about economic sanctions against Iran in the first place, there would be no need to exempt them from legislation.

It's one thing to argue about whether targeted sanctions against the regime and its guarantor of security, the IRGC, would be more effective than general sanctions against Iran's oil refining capability. This argument has some merit. This CRS report indicates:

While the oil and gas sector has been a focus of U.S. sanctions since the 1990s, the Obama Administration appears to be shifting—in U.S. regulations and in discussions with U.S. allies on a possible new U.N. Security Council Resolution—to targeting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for sanctions. This shift is intended to weaken the Guard as a proliferation- supporting organization, as well as to expose its role in trying to crush the democratic opposition in Iran.

The same CRS report notes that 80% of the government's revenues come from its oil sector. Sanctions against Iran's refining capability and against foreign investment in its energy sector would hit a key economic vulnerability. In response, many point out the Green Movement finds these sort of broad based sanctions unpopular. While broader sanctions may initially ignite a nationalist reaction, with the Iranian economy on such shaky ground, its plausible the Iranian people's frustration will turn on the regime instead of just blaming the Great Satan for all its problems.

If the administration believes it's better to narrowly target the regime, it should inform Congress of its policy assuring them they will act if the UNSC won't.  It can use this as badly needed leverage in a 2-level game with Russia and China.  Instead, the administration seems to hold out hope that Russia and China will agree to some sort of UNSC action. With Pres Admendinhad showing up next week at the UN's nuclear non-proliferation summit, it's highly unlikely the UNSC will agree to any meaningful resolution (see HuffPo). With the nuclear clock ticking, at some point, the administration will have to act without the UNSC's stated permission in regards to Iran.  We can do so with European support, as countries like France and the UK have indicated they would be willing to look at EU based sanctions. Yet there is no indication this administration is willing to go down that road.